U.S. presidential election shifts into another gear, with focus primarily on 7 states

After a summer of historic tumult in U.S. presidential politics, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump begin an eight-week sprint to election day neck-and-neck in most national polls.

Democrats have been buoyed by Harris’s nomination, following Joe Biden’s decision to abandon a second term in office following a disastrous performance in an atypically early June presidential debate against Trump.

But the party knows all too well that national results only tell so much. Democratic presidential candidates have earned more votes than Republican opponents in seven of the last eight presidential elections held since 1992, but only put a winner into the Oval Office on five of those occasions, due to electoral college system results.

The campaigns will spend hundreds of millions of dollars targeting voters who, in many cases, have just begun to pay attention to the election. 

“Post Labour Day, when the bell rings, there is a battle for a slim universe of — you can call them anything you want: persuasion voters, swing voters, independent voters — and it’s pretty small, and that’s where each side gets a billion dollars,” Democratic pollster John Anzalone said.

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September also promises to be eventful. Trump and Harris are set to meet on Sept. 10 in the lone scheduled presidential debate so far. That debate is in Philadelphia in the nation’s premier swing state, Pennsylvania, which begins in-person absentee voting the following week. By the end of the month, early voting will be underway in at least four more states.

As well, Trump’s sentencing for a criminal conviction for falsifying business records is set for Sept. 18 in New York, though the judge could decide to delay it at a hearing to take place two days earlier.

Democratic opportunities re-emerge after Biden exit

In replacing Biden as the party’s nominee, Harris breathed new life into the Democrats’ political prospects, especially across the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. All four states have significant numbers of African Americans and Latinos, traditionally Democratic constituencies who were down nationally on Biden but appear to have come home to rally behind Harris.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham told The Associated Press he was worried about Georgia’s shift since Biden departed the race.

“Trump was up five or six points, and all over the course of a month it’s become much more competitive,” said Graham.

But the Harris campaign put out a memo over the weekend casting itself as “the clear underdogs” in the contest, looking to mobilize supporters.

“There’s not a scenario here that’s easy,” Harris senior adviser David Plouffe said in an interview. “The pathway to beating Donald Trump, the pathway to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, is exceedingly hard, but doable. And that’s just a reality.”

Just over a month ago, Trump allies suggested Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, Virginia or even New Jersey might be in play. Neither side believes that is still the case on Labour Day weekend.

Republican pollster Paul Schumaker, an adviser to North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, said even a slight uptick in the Black vote has the potential to give Harris the edge in North Carolina, pointing to Mecklenberg County, the home of the Charlotte metro area, but also fast-growing counties such as Durham and Wake.

“If Kamala Harris could get them to turn out at the rate of Republicans in rural North Carolina, game over for Republicans,” Schumaker said of Black voters.

Money pours into Pennsylvania

At the same time, Trump remains decidedly on offence in the Midwestern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which form the so-called Democratic “blue wall” that he narrowly carried in 2016 over Hillary Clinton and barely lost in 2020 to Biden..

“We feel pretty good about things. We feel energized. Our people are energized,” said James Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director. “But there’s certainly plenty of work to be done.”

A Trump victory in Pennsylvania alone would make it much more difficult for Harris to earn 270 electoral votes, and his campaign is investing more advertising dollars there than in any other state through election day.

In the fight to frame the election on the air and reach voters in person, Democrats currently have a decided advantage.

Harris’s team is on pace to outspend Trump’s camp 2-to-1 in television advertising over the next two months. Her team, which includes her campaign and an allied super PAC, have more than $280 million US in television and radio reservations for the period between Tuesday and election day, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Trump’s team, by contrast, has $133 million US reserved for the final stretch, although that number is expected to grow.

But Trump’s side is actually narrowly outspending Harris’s on the airwaves in Pennsylvania, where both sides are on pace to spend more than $146 million US between Tuesday and election day, according to AdImpact. The figure dwarfs that of any other state, with Georgia next on the list with $80 million US in ad spending.

In the other five battleground states, Harris so far has the airwaves largely to herself.

Democrats are also hoping the enthusiasm behind her bid can prevent heavy losses in Congress. The party hopes to retake control of the House, as all 435 seats are up for a vote in that chamber, while 34 of 100 Senate states are in play for both parties.